In an era defined by aggressive market competition, soaring development costs, and an unpredictable landscape for funding, the traditional blueprints for video game success have effectively been shredded. As the industry grapples with the fallout of widespread layoffs and shifting consumer habits, Denis Fedorov—the founder of Unfrozen and the driving force behind the multi-studio collective Nova Assembly—has proposed a new, structural approach to indie survival. His strategy, aimed at helping small-to-mid-sized developers endure the current volatility, moves away from the fragility of single-project models and toward a more collaborative, resilient future.
Fedorov’s expertise is rooted in a track record that spans from the dark, strategic depths of Iratus: Lord of the Dead to the high-stakes development of the upcoming Heroes of Might & Magic: Olden Era. Through Nova Assembly, a holding company that unites five independent studios—including Sad Cat Studios, Vea Games, Game Garden, and Weappy—Fedorov has fostered an environment where creative independence is preserved, yet operational risks are mitigated through shared resources, marketing insights, and development expertise.
The Fragility of the Single-Project Model
The urgency of this pivot is underscored by the current state of the industry. The GDC 2026 State of the Game Industry survey paints a sobering picture: nearly 28% of all respondents reported being laid off in the previous two years, a figure that jumps to 33% when focusing exclusively on the United States. This represents a staggering erosion of institutional knowledge—talent that is often lost permanently to other sectors, leaving a void that will inevitably affect the quality and complexity of future titles.
At the heart of this instability, Fedorov argues, is the "single-project model." For many indie studios, the lifecycle of a game is the lifecycle of the company. A project is conceived, developed, and launched; if it fails to find an audience or hits a catastrophic development hurdle, the studio’s runway often vanishes overnight. In a landscape where even a single canceled publishing deal can be a terminal event, studios cannot afford to be tethered to the fate of a single product.
To survive, Fedorov suggests that teams must restructure for resilience long before a crisis hits. This involves maintaining a financial buffer—ideally 12 to 18 months of operating costs independent of any single project’s potential earnings. Furthermore, he advocates for the adoption of rapid prototyping. By testing concepts early, developers can validate ideas before committing a full team to a long-term production cycle. Crucially, the multi-project model does not necessarily require a massive expansion in headcount; rather, it suggests a staggered production pipeline where a studio can iterate on future concepts while keeping their primary project adequately staffed and focused.
Reevaluating the Publisher Relationship
For years, the industry standard for bridging the gap between vision and commercial reality was the publishing deal. It provided the necessary capital, marketing muscle, and platform access to turn a passion project into a viable product. However, as the market has become increasingly saturated and risk-averse, the value proposition of traditional publishing has shifted.
Publishers are currently under immense pressure to deliver consistent returns, leading many to avoid the experimental, high-risk projects that once defined the indie scene. They now prioritize titles with proven metrics, established audiences, and predictable outcomes. For the developer, this shift often results in higher costs, reduced creative control, and more stringent oversight.
Fedorov notes that while partnerships remain a viable path, the landscape is evolving. Developers are increasingly looking toward self-publishing, early access, and alternative funding models. Newer, more targeted initiatives—such as the indie-focused fund Outersloth—are proving that there is room for models that prioritize developer agency over corporate control. The key takeaway for modern studios is that a publisher should no longer be viewed as an automatic solution; instead, the studio must conduct a rigorous cost-benefit analysis of what they are trading in terms of IP rights and creative freedom.
The Power of Collaborative Ecosystems
One of the most persistent myths in the indie world is that success is a solitary pursuit. While the "lone developer" narrative is romantic, it is often a recipe for disaster in a modern production environment. Working in isolation leads to a loss of perspective, particularly on projects with long, grueling development cycles. Without consistent external feedback, even the most talented teams can become blinded to the flaws or disconnects in their product.
This is where the Nova Assembly model shines. By forming a collective of like-minded studios, developers can share the burdens that would otherwise crush a smaller team. This includes sharing production tools, technical troubleshooting, marketing infrastructure, and honest peer review. This collaboration does not strip a studio of its identity; rather, it provides a safety net.
Equally critical is the relationship with the player base. Fedorov stresses that the dialogue between developers and players must be active and ongoing. Early feedback loops—facilitated by public demos, social media interaction, and early access—are not just marketing tools; they are essential for identifying production bottlenecks before they become fatal. By integrating player behavior into the development process, studios can ensure that they are building something that resonates with the market, rather than guessing in a vacuum.
The End of the "Average" Game
Despite the gloom surrounding layoffs and funding, 2025 proved that small teams could still achieve monumental success. High-profile, critically acclaimed titles like Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 and Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2 demonstrated that indie teams could punch above their weight, securing a significant portion of the market—estimated by Alinea Analytics to be roughly 25% of Steam’s annual revenue.
However, these successes are outliers. The market is crowded, and consumer attention is a finite resource. In this hyper-competitive environment, there is no longer a "middle class" for indie games. An average game, which might have found a niche audience a few years ago, now faces a brutal reality where it essentially fails to register. As Yura Zhdanovich of Sad Cat Studios noted in Edge magazine, the standard for success has risen: "Being ‘OK’ is the same as being nothing."
To survive, developers must clearly define their "core differentiator" before a single line of code is written. Why should a player choose this game over the dozens of other high-quality titles available? Once a unique hook is identified, the focus must shift to marketing that concept early to build a hungry, ready-made audience.
Retaining the "Core" and Maintaining Identity
When volatility strikes, the knee-jerk reaction is often to slash the workforce. While this may be a necessary survival tactic in extreme scenarios, Fedorov warns against losing the "core" of the studio. The developers who hold the team’s institutional knowledge, creative chemistry, and production continuity are the most valuable assets a company has. A smaller team of highly experienced, engaged individuals will almost always outperform a larger, less invested workforce.
.png)
Ultimately, small studios cannot win a war of attrition against AAA giants who possess the resources to brute-force market dominance. The indie advantage lies in agility, bold creative vision, and the kind of intimate emotional experience that massive, mass-market projects often lack.
As the industry faces the next wave of inevitable market shifts, the studios that will prevail are those that balance their distinct creative voice with rigorous, disciplined production. Survival in the modern age requires a move away from the traditional, fragile models of the past and toward a more sustainable, collaborative, and audience-centric approach. By prioritizing resilience, maintaining a tight-knit core of talent, and refusing to compromise on quality, indie studios can continue to shape the industry’s future.